For 16 long years, the Awami League was India's main political ally in Bangladesh. Under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina and Narendra Modi, the relationship between the two countries has been repeatedly described as a 'golden chapter'. India's open and closed support for the Awami League in the 2014, 2018 and 2024 national elections is a reflection of that relationship.

But the situation has changed. Awami League's failure to participate in the 13th national elections on January 12 has created a new reality for India. In that reality, there is practically no other major political alternative for India except BNP.

It is in this context that analysts are giving special importance to Narendra Modi's condolence message after the death of BNP Chairperson and former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia. In the letter sent to Tarique Rahman, Modi not only expressed his condolences, but also expressed confidence in the future leadership of BNP and referred to Khaleda Zia's ideals as a 'lightning bolt' in the India-Bangladesh partnership. Those concerned believe that this is a clear political message in diplomatic terms.

BNP is now India's 'number one option'
According to former ambassador Munshi Faiz Ahmed, India's diplomatic calculations are very realistic. He said, "India understands that BNP may come to power in the future. As a result, it is trying to build relations in advance. Now India has practically no other option but BNP."

This message has become clearer in Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to Dhaka, multiple meetings with BNP leaders and continuous diplomatic contacts.

India's eye on Tarique Rahman's popularity
Tarique Rahman's return to the country after 17 years of exile and the presence of millions of people in his public reception in the capital has also created a stir in Indian diplomatic circles. Former Indian diplomats have publicly commented that the restoration of democratic trends in Bangladesh may be possible under Tarique Rahman's leadership.

Former Indian High Commissioner Riva Ganguly Das said that Tarique Rahman's return to politically divided and unstable Bangladesh could unite moderate forces and help restore some stability.

Sriradha Dutta, a professor at OP Jindal Global University, also believes that Tarique Rahman is currently “giving all the right messages” from India’s perspective and there is no room for ignoring his public support.

India’s activeness in building relations
Since the fall of the Awami League government on August 5, 2024, India’s contact with BNP has visibly increased. BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir’s meeting with Indian High Commissioner Pranay Verma in September was the beginning of this process. Since then, a series of high-level meetings, condolence messages and formal contacts have indicated warming relations.

However, BNP is cautious
Despite India’s increasing interest, BNP is taking a very cautious stance diplomatically. Tarique Rahman has made it clear that the basic principle of BNP’s diplomacy is “Bangladesh first.” He has also made clear his position on fair sharing of water, stopping border killings and no compromise on the issue of sovereignty.

According to analysts, the future of India-BNP relations will depend on this mutual trust and alignment of interests. But this much is clear—India is no longer in a position to ignore the BNP in the geopolitics of South Asia.